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A D V A N C E D M A T E R I A L S & P R O C E S S E S | A P R I L 2 0 1 7
FEEDBACK
2016 COMMODITIES REVIEW: A MIXED BAG
I t was a mixed year for commod-
ities in 2016, according to analysts at
Roskill Information Services, London.
Major trends included debt reduction
by large public mining companies, ad-
justment to China’s slowing economy,
and market reactions to the growing
public sentiment against “business as
usual”—including the European refer-
endum vote and the U.S. presidential
election. Prices for a number of com-
modities were at several-year lows as
2016 began. But by mid-year, increases
were seen in aluminum, crude steel,
iron ore, and across a range of minor
metals and industrial minerals, say
analysts.
Moving into 2017, stability appears
to be the key aim of the major miners.
For steel alloys in particular, the out-
look for 2017 is positive, with vanadi-
um feedstock availability set to be tight
amid growing buzz around vanadium
redox batteries (VRBs). The year started
with vanadium prices at a considerable
low, with ferrovanadium prices having
dropped from over $22/kg at the start
of 2015 to below $14/kg by the end of
the year. In 2016, prices slowly recov-
ered, reaching over $20/kg by Novem-
ber. Most market participants expect
BETHLEHEM STEEL POSTMORTEM
I read the article on the decline of
the U.S. steel industry with great interest
[“Metallurgy Lane,” November/Decem-
ber 2016]. In early 1973, I interviewed
at Homer Research Laboratory after
returning from Army Reserve training in
the Ordnance Corps at Aberdeen Proving
Ground. My master’s thesis advisor at MIT,
Professor John Elliott, helpedme set this
up. The lab was a really busy place and
the cafeteria had a great view of the valley
and big mill below. Nothing came of my
visit, but I did find out that new hires were
getting about a month of vacation, since
the union had negotiated that for the
hourly men.
Fast forward to the mid-1980s when
I was working for Air Products outside of
Allentown. I needed to get some ten-
sile bond testing (ASTM C633) done for
developmental thermal spray coatings
and Homer Lab had the test machines to
do it. I was shocked when I got there. The
formerly bustling cafeteria and labs were
nearly deserted. Our metallographer at
Air Products had worked at Homer Lab
and he believed there were two main
reasons for Bethlehem Steel’s fall:
• Licensing technology to the Japa-
nese that they exploited better than
Bethlehem did.
• Allowing non-inventors in the chain
of command to add their own names
to an engineer’s patent application.
There was a company limit on the
total number of names per patent, so
if too many of the brass climbed on
board, the real inventor was bumped.
This somehow reduced innovation.
I wonder if other ASMmembers
could confirm this or weigh in on Bethle-
hem’s demise with more information and
opinions.
Robert Miller
We welcome all comments
and suggestions. Send letters to
.
prices to continue to improve during
2017, with vanadium demand from the
steel sector forecast to grow at a steady
rate and the availability of feedstock ex-
pected to remain tight.
Regarding chromium, it has been
a difficult time for chromite and ferro-
chrome producers, say analysts. De-
mand for stainless steel recovered after
the global economic downturn, and so
did prices during 2010-2012. After this
period, falling production costs coupled
with oversupply and relatively sluggish
demand caused prices to stagnate and
then fall. By Q1 2016, prices were at six-
year lows. However, in the second half
of 2016, a dramatic recovery occurred
and by Q3, chrome ore prices had re-
covered to their highest levels since the
global downturn. In 2017, it is forecast
that ferrochrome prices will remain
strong in Q1 and possibly Q2.
The molybdenum market showed
a strong recovery in 2016, with U.S.
ferromolybdenum prices increasing
from a low of $6.14/lb in January to a
peak of $9.39/lb in June. However, in
the second half of 2016, poor demand
from downstream industries led to U.S.
ferromolybdenum prices tailing off, av-
eraging $9.04/lb in Q3 and forecast to
average $8.20/lb in Q4 2016. The strong
recovery in pricing has been led by bet-
ter than anticipated stainless steel pro-
duction in China, with the international
Stainless Steel Forum reporting a 4.1%
year-on-year increase in global output
and a 7.9% increase in Chinese output
in the first half of 2016. The recovery
in crude oil prices also supported in-
creased production and exploratory
drilling in North America, which con-
tributed to marginally increased de-
mand for molybdenum-bearing steels.
For more information, visit roskill.com.
Crystal bar vanadium showing different
textures and surface oxidation; 3N5-pure
cube for comparison. Courtesy of wikipe-
dia.org/Alchemist-hp.
MARKET SPOTLIGHT