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A ccording to the new report—Cobalt: Market Outlook to 2018 —from
Roskill Information Services, London, global cobalt consumption in-
creased at a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% between 2008 and 2013.
Roskill expects future demand to grow at a similar rate, approximately 6.1%
per year to 2018. Demand will be led by Asia, particularly China, South
Korea, and Japan, mainly driven by battery cathode production.
The market went into oversupply in late 2009 and remains in surplus,
say analysts, and supply is expected to continue to outstrip demand both
this year and next. Beyond 2016, demand is forecast to grow at a faster
rate than supply. However, it will take several years for the recent period
of oversupply and stockpiling to reconcile, which is likely to keep prices
in check over the medium term.
Developments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the
world’s largest mine producer, have the potential to significantly impact
the market this year. The DRC government wants to increase domestic re-
fining of copper and cobalt products and decrease exports of unrefined
materials. However, while the proposed export ban on concentrates did
not come to fruition in 2013, government rhetoric suggests that such
measures could still go ahead this year. While a
blanket ban remains unlikely, the 2013 increase in
export taxes, from $60 to $100 per ton, could be
the first of several changes.
Outside of the DRC, a number of potential
mine projects could produce cobalt raw materials,
although many are at an early stage of exploration
or development. Additional mine supply is likely
to come from expansion projects at existing producers through 2018. Fu-
ture demand is expected to grow at
more than 6% annually to 2018, under-
pinned by strong growth in China, the
world’s biggest refined producer. As a
result, demand is expected to reach
more than 110,000 tons annually.
Cobalt use in battery applications
will drive consumption and is
forecast to grow at 9.2% per
year, say analysts.
Prices are expected to con-
tinue a slight downward trend in
2014with the ramping up of new
projects in Madagascar and the
Philippines bringing additional
material into the market and com-
pounding the current oversupply sit-
uation. Thereafter, Roskill expects a
modest year-on-year increase with high-
grade cobalt prices increasing at roughly
3.6%per year to 2018. Formore information,
visit
ADVANCED MATERIALS & PROCESSES • MAY 2014 4
spot l ight feedback
market
Cobalt market braces for
change in 2014 and beyond
Dream cars
In our March “Feedback” department,
we asked readers about their favorite
automotive memories and aspirations.
Here are a few of our favorite responses:
1960 Sunbeam Alpine Roadster
My first car was a well-used Sunbeam
Alpine Roadster that I bought in Norfolk,
Va., when I was in the Navy. It had a
convertible top, tonneau cover, and re-
movable plastic hardtop. I tried to drive
it to my job interview with Harry Chan-
dler [author of Metallurgy for the Non-
Metallurgist] in the fall of ‘69, but it
broke down on the New York State
Thruway. I made it to Materials Park a
couple of days later in my dad’s Ford.
The rest is history. Now I wish I’d had
the wherewithal to have the Sunbeam
restored. It was a nice ride, when it ran.
Don Baxter
My first ‘67 Corvette Sting Ray
was a red, big block 427ci/435hp
that I bought in late 1967 from a
guy who got new ones every fall. I
was working for GE in Schenec-
tady, N.Y., in the Large Steam Tur-
bine Dept. My monthly insurance
payment was more than my loan
and gas costs because the car
was considered a high-powered, two-
seat sports car and I was under 25. My
current ‘67 Sting Ray is a 327ci/350hp
high performance, Goodwood Green con-
vertible with the optional hardtop. 1967
was the last year of the original Sting Rays
(1963-67) and this one is very correct and
very fast from 0 to 80 mph, one power
shift from first to second, and corners well
with a stock/original suspension.
Ron Natole
1956 Continental Mark II
My ideal car is the Continental Mark II,
the last true classic made in the U.S. It
will turn heads anywhere.
Chuck Dohogne
We welcome all comments
and suggestions. Send letters to
.
1967 Corvette Sting Ray
World Consumption of Cobalt,
by end use, 2013
Source: Cobalt Market Outlook to 2018,
Roskill Information Services
Nickel alloys
18%
Batteries
35%
Other
7%
Soaps and
dryers
3%
Magnets
6%
Catalysts
11%
Tool materials
13%
Pigments and
decolorizers
7%